Growth plan for Filson, 8 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Filson has made goods since 1897 and sells a $179.00 All-Weather Backpack beside a $599.00 Mackinaw Wool Cruiser Jacket. The plan: test many creator-led ads across that range, kill losers early, and protect one number, a $65.76 target CAC.
- Target CAC
- $65.76
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: a $65.76 CAC on a $137 average order
The number is target CAC: $65.76. It is 0.6 of a $109.60 ceiling, built from a $137 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. Those inputs are my guesses until I see your data. Every test is judged against this line.
Protect
Target CAC: $65.76 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $137 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $109.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $109.60 = $65.76. Across the ranges: $0.52 to $808.65.
Three moves
- Kill any ad whose CAC runs past $65.76 once it has spend, and move its budget to the next concept.
- Build landing pages that pair a $55.00 Watch Cap with a jacket or shirt, to lift order value toward $137.
- Put the free shipping line over $99 in the ads, so more first orders clear it.
- Year Filson's line "Unfailing Goods Since 1897" points to
- 1897
- Published
- Free shipping threshold on U.S. orders
- $99
- Published
- Days to return an item after delivery
- 30
- Published
02 Variety
A $55.00 Watch Cap and a $599.00 jacket need different ads
Each ad has to carry one reason to buy and one product. The All-Weather Backpack needs weather and 30-liter capacity; the Tin Cloth Wildfowl Hat needs its wool lining; the Watch Cap at $55.00 needs an easy first order. No concept mixes them.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Guaranteed for life | Every product guaranteed for life. | 4 |
| Wool that insulates when wet | Wool naturally insulates even when wet and remains breathable for comfort through changing weather. | 4 |
| Unfailing goods since 1897 | Unfailing Goods Since 1897 | 2 |
| Free shipping over $99 | Free shipping on orders over $99 | 2 |
| Water-resistant backpack | The polyester fabric is coated with TPU (thermoplastic polyurethane) for water resistance. | 2 |
| Free backpack with $350 | Free All-Weather Backpack with $350 Purchase | 2 |
| Brim that shades | The three-inch flat brim shades your face, neck, and ears from harsh sun. | 2 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Risks: the $8 return fee and the 30-day window bite first
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Page text shows 0 REVIEWS, so ads may send traffic to a page with no visible proof | Med | High | Your team | Live review widget confirmed on product pages before week 3 spend |
| The $8 return fee and 30-day window hurt margin on sized apparel | Med | Med | Both | Return rate logged weekly by product; pause any ad whose returns erase its margin |
| Free shipping applies only over $99 and not internationally, so an ad offer could mislead | Low | Med | Me | Every ad and page states the $99 U.S. rule; zero shipping complaints in comments |
| Creators miss weekly video counts, so the ramp to 10 live by week six stalls | High | Med | Me | Two new creators signed each week; two weeks below plan means I widen sourcing |
| Real average order is below the $137 guess, so the $65.76 guard line is too loose | Med | High | Both | Real average order replaces $137 by end of week 1; guard line re-set |
| Event tracking is incomplete, so CAC cannot be trusted | Med | High | Your team | Purchase events reconcile with store orders before week 2 spend |
| Creator claims on Tin Cloth or wool gear drift from Filson's own wording | Low | High | Both | Every creator video checked against the claims sheet before it goes live |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The $109.60 ceiling rests on guesses until week one
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $137 (range $1.00–$599.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $109.60 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $65.76 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $137 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $109.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $109.60 = $65.76. Across the ranges: $0.52 to $808.65.
Range across the assumptions: $1 to $809.
None of the inputs behind the $109.60 ceiling are Filson facts: the $137 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are my guesses. Week one replaces them with real data and resets the $65.76 line.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000, from 12 ads to 20
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $66 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $66 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $66 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $66 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $66 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $66 |
Weeks 1 and 2 run 12 ads each at $250, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads at $4,000. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads at $5,000. Total tests: $24,000, out of $100,000. Losers die early; winners get the money.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: 80 concepts, 8 winners
More concepts means more shots at a winner. Hit rate and spend per winner are guesses, labelled Assumption. On them, 20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Where the $100,000 goes, with Meta first
- Meta tests and scaling of winning ads
- $50,000
- 50%
- Creator pay and product seeding
- $25,000
- 25%
- Landing pages and offer tests
- $15,000
- 15%
- Reporting and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
Of the $100,000, tests take $24,000 first; the rest funds only the winners that hold the $65.76 guard line.
The math. 50% × $100,000 = $50,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 15% × $100,000 = $15,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; free shipping over $99 sets the offer
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta (Facebook and Instagram) | Week 1, with 12 ads live | Creator video on the backpack and Alaskan Guide Shirt tests fast in the feed. |
| TikTok | When a Meta winner holds the $65.76 CAC | The same creator videos reach hunting and outdoor work niches at little extra cost. |
| Branded search | Once ads start lifting searches for Filson | Buyers who meet the 1897 story will search the name; branded terms catch them. |
| When first buyers arrive | A repeat order is inside the $109.60 ceiling, so the follow-up after order one matters. | |
| Creator-handle ads | When a creator video wins on its own | Running the winner from the creator's handle keeps its native feel. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a $155 CAC never earns back on $137 orders
Payback is the real constraint. On a $137 order at 40% margin, a $35 CAC returns the cost on the first order with $74.60 left. At $65 it pays back after repeat orders, $44.60 left. At $120 and $155 it never does, so I stop: −$10.40 and −$45.40.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $54.80, $109.60.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 | $54.80 | $109.60 | $74.60 | First order |
| $65 | $54.80 | $109.60 | $44.60 | After repeat orders |
| $120 | $54.80 | $109.60 | −$10.40 | Never: stop |
| $155 | $54.80 | $109.60 | −$45.40 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $35: $109.60 − $35 = $74.60 left; pays back: First order; CAC $65: $109.60 − $65 = $44.60 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $120: $109.60 − $120 = −$10.40 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $155: $109.60 − $155 = −$45.40 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
I cover ads and creators; Filson's 1897 craft stays yours
Covers
- Ad concepts and Meta testing across Filson's range
- Creator sourcing, briefs and weekly video counts
- Landing page tests built on Filson's own product pages
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team ships it
- Product, pricing and the $8 return fee decisions
- Inventory and shipping, including the 3–5 business day dispatch
- Customer service and the review widget setup
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | At least 2 creators live, 12 ads tested, tracking matches store orders | Tracking does not match store orders, or no ad has spend |
| Day 30 | One winner holds CAC under $65.76 and its spend rises each week | No winner after six experiments; every CAC above $109.60 |
| Day 60 | Spend is up with CAC held at $65.76, and payback shows on first or repeat orders | CAC above $109.60 for two weeks running |
| Day 90 | Payback lands inside repeat orders at spend well beyond the $24,000 of tests | Payback is never reached at the $109.60 ceiling |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Own wording: "Unfailing Goods Since 1897" | Approved claims per product | 1st |
| creators | Outdoor work gear like the Tin Cloth Wildfowl Hat | A roster of hunters and fishing guides | 1st |
| creative | A range from $35.00 caps to $599.00 jackets | A hook library of tested concepts | 2nd |
| landing pages | Free shipping over $99 as a clear offer | One page per ad concept | 2nd |
| reporting | Free shipping and 30-day return rules to track | Event tracking and a daily CAC view | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 1897 Year Filson's line "Unfailing Goods Since 1897" points to | https://www.filson.com/ | Fact |
| $99 Free shipping threshold on U.S. orders | https://www.filson.com/pages/customer-care | Fact |
| 30 Days to return an item after delivery | https://www.filson.com/pages/customer-care | Fact |
| Product prices $1.00–$599.00 | product prices in the site product data (75 products), read 2026-10-08 | Fact |
| $137 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $65.76 target CAC | 0.6 of the $109.60 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $109.60 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 50% / 25% / 15% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I build the claims sheet from Filson's own wording, sign the first two creators, brief them on the All-Weather Backpack and the Alaskan Guide Shirt, and put 12 ads into test at $250 each. Your team and I spec the tracking first.
